As the length of the affair increases, the probability that your wife will eventually find out converges to 1. The chances that you'll slip up somehow, or get inadvertently found out through some voicemail, missed call, something, are too high.
And when that happens, the results are as predictable as they are horrible.
So how does it make sense to start down this path, rather than go for an honorable divorce now?
It’s entirely possible that the whole thing
is just overconfidence, and the people involved think they can beat the odds
forever. Maybe they’re just that stupid.
But I think I’ve figured out an alternative.
What if the eventual inevitability of getting caught is the
feature, not the bug?
Suppose the unfaithful partner wants to be out of the
relationship, but suffers from hyperbolic discounting. Even someone who has
grown bored with their partner will still find it painful to tell their husband
or wife that they want a divorce. You are wrenching the heart of the person you
once loved enough to declare a lifelong commitment to. You want to be free of
them, but that doesn’t mean you’re not dreading the process of getting from
here to there.
So what will you do if you’re a hyperbolic discounter?
You’ll procrastinate. You’ll convince yourself that you’ll leave your wife next
month, or next year. And somehow next year turns into this year, and it never
happens.
In this view, embarking on an affair is a sign of wanting
out eventually, but not having the courage to just end it then and there. The
affair is thus a commitment to eventually end the marriage at some unknown
point when you get discovered. It functions somewhat like the Thaler and
Bernartzi ‘Save More Tomorrow’ plan, or the complaint to the police by a domestically abused woman in a no-drop jurisdiction. It’s the ‘Divorce More Tomorrow’ plan for those without the
courage to tell their husband or wife that they want to leave.
The indefinite
timeline for discovery is also a plus – a known date would cause a lot of
stress as it approached, and would create the risk of massive preference
reversals. The unknown aspect means in addition that the final choice is taken
out of the cheater’s hands, which benefits those who want to feel like the
divorce was the process of some inevitable deterioration in the relationship,
rather than an active choice by them (we grew apart, things didn’t work out,
the knife went in).
My guess is that when
the cheater is eventually discovered in their lie, once the initial shock is
overcome, the next feeling is relief. Relief that things are finally drawing to
the conclusion that they’ve long wanted, but haven’t had the courage to
actually ask for.
It seems a strange explanation, but I can’t think of a
better one.
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